PROMIX Management — Won, parliamentary majority, The new prime minister Sheikh Hasina innitiated chance to lead the country away from its paralyzing culture of revenge politics.
But analysts both national and international warn that a still-polarized voters and a deep inheritance of corruption have the potential to unleash the sort of violent altercation that forced the military to step in two years ago.
"To avoid a revisit to the winner-takes-all way of politics, the government will have to reach out to the opposition and try to work with it for the next five years," said Michael Shaikh, a senior forecaster from the Brussels-based International Crisis Group (ICG).
"The challenge for the two main parties is to manage this persuasion for retribution."
This is Hasina's second stint at the premiership after ruling between 1996 and 2001.
Hasina, whose secular Awami League party won 230 out of a possible 300 seats in parliament, has indicated she wants to end the confrontational politics that has crippled the country in the past political culture.
The real test is up till now to come.
Analyst says"There is a threat with any government that has an absolute majority,".
"The option is that it will steamroll the opposition and does whatever it wants to do."
Unlike previous elections, the December 29 polls were largely passive, but police say there have been four election-related deaths since then, with media reporting at least 11 dead.
"If the aggression spins out of control, the military could step in again and it is improbable to do another softly-softly state of emergency. Martial law is more likely next time," Shaikh said.
The last government, which ruled with a state of emergency in place for 23 months, tried but unsuccessful to exile Hasina and her bitter rival, Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) leader and ex-premier Khaleda Zia, instead jailing them for a year on dishonesty charges then releasing them to take part in the elections.
Zia's party won just 29 seats in last month's vote.
Since gaining independence, Bangladeshi politics has been marked by nationwide strikes called by political leaders, boycotts of parliament by opposition parties and widespread corruption.
Shaikh said the BNP's seats in parliament did not accurately reproduce its sustain base, after it won 32 percent of the popular vote, compared to the Awami League's 48 percent.
"The BNP represents a lot of Bangladeshis, about 26 million voters," he said.
"Sheikh Hasina has made the right noises about reaching out to the opposition but that's dissimilar from actually doing it. For all the courteousness we've seen there is still a lot of bitterness."
Zia won the preceding election in 2001 with a two-thirds best part by forming an alliance with the then increasingly popular Islamic party Jamaat-e-Islami (JI).
But that combination cost her extremely in the latest vote after JI's increasingly conservative voice in the moderate Muslim-majority nation alienated younger voters, according to commentators.
The JI won 17 seats in 2001 but managed just two this time.
Zia, who initially rejected the election results, has said she will work with the new government, but stands by allegations of voter fraud.
"The early statements have been very optimistic but will they carry on being generous? The fact that Sheikh Hasina won by such a big margin, that has gone to politicians' heads before in Bangladesh," Gareth Price, head of the Asia programmed at British-based think-tank Chatham House, said.
"It's just coming up and hoping that lessons have been learnt and that mistakes by the opposition and the government won't be repeated."
Democracy & secularism returns :
Bangladesh's first parliamentary election since 2001 has produced a landslide victory for the Sheikh Hasina-led Awami League (AL) over the Khaleda Zia-led Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and its allies, to re-take power. Awami League, the party that led the country's independence war against Pakistan, won 230 seats independently, as against a paltry 27 by the BNP, in an election that saw around 75 per cent turnout, out of 81 million voters. In total, the Hasina-led Grand Alliance garnered 262 of the 299 parliamentary seats as compared to the BNP-led bloc that managed only 30.
One of the most significant verdicts given by the Bangladeshis this election was a complete disdain for the religious radicalization of politics. This is obvious as the Islamic party Jamaat-e-Islami, a key BNP ally, polled only two seats--a good 15 seats less than it had in the last election in 2001. A secular party has clearly emerged as the winner. As expected the losing side is grumbling about irregularities.
"We have reports that BNP supporters were barred from coming to the polls and also were driven away from polling stations in many places," its leader Rizvi Ahmed told local television. But, the Chief Election Commissioner Shamsul Huda said he had complete confidence in the election process and there was "no scope for fraud of vote rigging". He went on to add: "So it will be difficult to reject the election result this time. We expect people will elect a parliament, which even if not a dream parliament, will be a good one."
According to election monitors, an UN-funded digital electoral roll, which has eliminated 12.7 million fake names, appeared to have resolved many of the problems that previous elections suffered. Accordingly, a team of South Asian poll monitors concluded that voting had been "free, fair and transparent." EU observers too said procedures had been correctly followed.
Recall that the baton of power alternated between the BNP and the Awami League between 1991 and 2006, until January 2007 when the army cancelled the elections after months of street protests and battles between gangs of rival party supporters spiraled out of control. But, the unprecedented mandate received by the Awami League seems to indicate a popular desire for change and political stability. The voting on December 29 was also the most peaceful in decades - a stark contrast to the failed elections of 2000. English-language Daily Star described the win as "stunning" proof that the country was "hungry for change." Dhaka University political science professor Ataur Rahman said it represented a "huge backlash" against the last BNP government, which had a reputation of rampant corruption.
Both Zia and Hasina were earlier jailed on corruption charges, which the two dismissed as politically motivated. They were freed on bail and reassumed positions as the heads of their respective parties to contest the elections. The Awami League, which once had socialist economic policies, has moved towards backing private sector expansion. Hasina's call to build a digital Bangladesh and focus on development helped her attract the younger generation. Analysts said first-time voters, who form nearly one-third of the electorate, had overwhelmingly backed her, rejecting Zia's more religious platform. Moreover, women voters too who came out in huge numbers tilted the balance in her favour.
Sheikh Hasina was first elected Prime Minister in 1996 for a five-year term, and was leader of the opposition three times between 1986 and 2006. The years of political rivalry between her and Zia has been blamed for much of the corruption, mismanagement and paralyzing protests that have made Bangladesh virtually ungovernable. Hasina escaped two serious attempts on her life - gunfire at a political rally in 1986 and a grenade attack on a public meeting in 2004 - that left dozens of her supporters dead.
According to many analysts, the challenge of holding a free and fair election - even in Bangladesh, which has a dire history in rigged and violent polls - will pale in comparison with that of governing a county plagued with poverty, corruption and a burgeoning Islamist terror threat. In similar manifestos, each candidate promised to reduce poverty by ensuring at least employment for one member of each family. They also said they would address Bangladesh's shortfall in power production; lower food prices; and tackle terrorism.
A sense of cautious optimism is bound to dominate the mood in South Asia, with the fate of the currently installed democratic governments in Pakistan and Nepal still unraveling. In recent times, the trajectory of Bangladeshi politics has unfortunately paralleled that of Pakistan, with a chaotic spell of democratic rule giving way to military rule in early 2007. In fact, political freedom as an experiment has proved as fragile in Bangladesh as in Pakistan. And if the BNP-led alliance's huge victory in 2001 is taken into account, it is not hard to discern that political majorities in Bangladesh don't necessarily mean lasting democracy or good governance. If the new government is to reverse Bangladesh's trend towards authoritarianism and ideological religiosity, a responsible role-play on the part of the opposition and the military is imminent.
For India and the world, events in Bangladesh are encouraging. The Awami League is credited with favoring inter-community harmony within Bangladesh and a foreign policy based on regional and international cooperation. In fact, Hasina during her premiership won international praise for signing a peace treaty with tribal rebels in south-eastern Bangladesh, ending a 25-year insurgency. It will be an opportunity as well as a challenge to rein in the rise of religious intolerance and terror outfits and lead Bangladesh towards stability and economic progress.
Terrorism being a major concern, especially after the Mumbai attacks, Hasina's victory will bring some comfort to New Delhi as she took tough steps against the anti-India militant groups while in power in the mid 90s. In contrast, there was a sharp spike in militancy and Islamic fundamentalism during Zia's tenure. Zia showed little inclination to deal with terror strikes at India from groups such as Harkad-Ul-Jihad-al-Islami. The country was under a spell of emergency for the past two years. Though India favoured a return to democracy, it nevertheless managed to strike a working relationship with the caretaker government, in an effort to resolve border issues and prevent anti-India activities.
Congratulating Hasina over the phone, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh said: "India looks forward to working with the government and the people of Bangladesh in the years ahead for the mutual benefit of the people of the two countries." He extended an invitation to the new premier to visit India at her earliest convenience. In the same tone, External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee said he hoped the new government will deal with terrorism more effectively and see it as a problem that didn't affect India alone. New Delhi is hopeful that Hasina will go one step further and ensure that no anti-India activity is carried out, given her vow that she would not allow Bangladesh's territory to be used for terrorism against its neighbours.
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